…it turns out that this year is not going to see a “supercharged” hurricane season in the Caribbean and southeastern United States, and it’s a worrying prospect to all the Climate Alarmist Assholes like that “Hockey Stick” charlatan:
Penn State celebrity climate scientist Michael Mann announced in April that his research group’s 2024 North Atlantic season forecast was expecting an “unprecedented” 33 named storms, with a range between 27 and 39. That prediction has turned out to be a dud.
With Hurricane Francine hitting the coasts Thursday, the total number of named storms only comes to six, making it one of the quietest hurricane seasons to date.
I’m not going to bother to point out, yet again, that using “climate models” to predict short-term weather patterns is a waste of time, and not just because almost all climate models suck green donkey dicks, statistically speaking.
What needs pointing out is that the great Global Warming Climate Cooling Change© movement is a load of bullshit, not the least for the reasons stated above, but also because fanatical adherence to its so-called “prophecies” is leading towards societal collapse as our power needs are increasingly constrained in pursuit of the movement’s largely-unattainable goals.
Has there EVER been a year where the experts predicted a MILD hurricane season? I’ve lived here all my life and can’t remember such. It’s always the “we’re all going die” type predictions cause that’s the only thing that’ll get ink in the national sewage press. It’s kinda like that school that bragged that all their students were above average!
You’ll never hear the media report “well, I guess we were wrong about that extreme season we predicted”.
Might be well to repeat (and repeat ad nauseam) that Global Warming (or whatever) IF it’s happening (and the jury is still out) is NOT a problem and “we” shouldn’t do all the socially-destructive things the Left and the commie watermelons (BIRM) are urging us to do — to our eventual sorrow.
Mr. du Toit:
One of my multiple responsibilities in my former engineering job at Middlin’Corp (well, it wasn’t MegaCorp, but still Fortune 500) was to perform CFD (computerized fluid dynamics) modeling of air flow within our products. When I started it was all on a central mainframe, with severe limitations of overall model size (number of cells usable). By the time I retired in 2018 all of the software was running on a dedicated desktop with 8 processors and a couple of thousand times more capability.
Accuracy and coherence with reality of any model is dependent on multiple things, but reasonable cell size for the object being modeled versus things like air velocity and object geometry are very important. When I’ve seen the descriptions that “climatologists” and meterologists use for their “climate models” it’s usually laugh-out-loud stupid. They’re trying to model a climate system that’s 10’s of miles high (most of them stop at around 100,000 feet of altitude) on a planet that’s 8,000 miles (more or less) in diameter. They’ve got dozens of parameters that must be modeled, including convection, radiation heat transfer both from the surfaces of the Earth and clouds, variable air pressure, et cetera.
One of the more famously-acclaimed models completely eliminated Newfoundland (43,000 square miles) simply because their system didn’t have the capability of modeling things that closely. The coarseness and crudeness of the early models cannot be overstated, yet they’re still using the results as if they were valid. Even with the massive advancements in processing power and memory, to accurately model the actual atmosphere of Earth would require a computer the size of a small building with a fairly large river to cool it. Nobody’s going to bother since they don’t accurately know the parameters to input into such a model (GIGO).
Instead they’ll keep running garbage models for which they tweak the model and it’s inputs in order to give whatever output they want. And curiously enough, government-funded “research” always ends up requiring government-based “solutions”.
As far as I can see from the studies the Earth’s climate more-or-less follows the sun’s output. Period. If we get a 25-year period with low sunspot activity (which does a whole bunch of things to complex to go into, including the Earth’s magnetic field) we get what we’ve had lately, which is a “pause” in the warming cycle from the last Little Ice Age. Right now sunspot activity has gone hugely upward, and it’s guessed we might go into a short warming trend again. No doubt this will be the fake basis for renewed glueball wormening crisis abatement.
Blackwing for the WIN!
Not your error, but, as a Penn State alumnus, I want to point out that Michael E. Mann is no longer at Penn State. He has moved from rural State College to the big city and become director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the much more prestigious University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy, in Philadelphia. Readers may discuss among themselves whether this is yet more evidence of the decline of Ivies and other elite American universities or of Penn State getting back on track.
I’ll go with your Option A.
As far as I can deduce, Penn State is still part of Woke Central.
With several Nieces that are Penn State grads I can confirm it is Woke Central and has been for at least 10 years.
I believe McMann got fired from NASA (though that’s not the word used). To be fired from NASA for extremism in climate is almost unheard of. NASA itself is an extremist organization when it comes to such things (funding). That guy is full of crap but it’s the BS the media laps up like a dog on a rotten carcass. For what it’s worth, my last 10 years at work was involved with climate “science” at PhD level. I am a proud member of the 3%. I don’t talk about it much with non-professionals – the indoctrination is so bad, it’s like listening to the whore about economic policy.