I’ve never accompanied Mr. Free Market and Doc Russia on their South African safaris because as much as I’d love to share the experience with them, quite frankly I’ve been there, done that, and can’t afford it anymore.
Now it looks like nobody’s going to be doing much hunting in the near future, because of ANC policy:
THE South African government has begun the process of seizing land from white farmers.
Local newspaper City Press reports two game farms in the northern province of Limpopo are the first to be targeted for unilateral seizure after negotiations with the owners to purchase the properties stalled.
Africa wins again.
And I may consider calling South Africa “Zimbabwe South” in the near future. Feel free to explain to me why this isn’t justified.
As with Europe, I’m glad I got to see Africa while there was still some left.
Africa wins?
Nope, it’s just another gunfight where Africa deftly whips out its pistol and blows away a chunk of its foot.
Every international investor on the planet just doubled or tripled or quadrupled his risk profile on any African investment.
Africa loses, and loses, and loses.
Exactly what Abba Eban said about the Arabs: They never lose an opportunity to lose an opportunity.
So if we are talking Zimbabwe south, keeping them north of the Zambezi failed… Keep ’em north of…what? The Great Fish? The Berg?
It is like watching a slow-motion repeat.
The white tribe abandoned their plan for withdrawal to enclave and keeping The Bomb. Giving up on both made their fate inevitable. They will be pushed off the continent inside 10 years.
Back in the 60’s when I read Congo Kitabu by Jean-Pierre Hallet I thought “unique to the Belgian Congo”. Nope, just the model for a whole bunch of countries since then. You are absolutely correct Kim. Africa has won.
I was just talking with a friend who’s a Zimbabwe expat about the Chinese presence in Africa which has been moving south along the east coast (and extending to the west, too) but hasn’t swallowed South Africa.
She thinks that SA’s infrastructure is good enough that things can be held together enough to keep SA from becoming effectively a Chinese colony.
I’m thinking that the land seizures that are starting in earnest will gut SA’s food production to the point that after a sufficient number of deaths to starvation and disease, the survivors will ask for or allow for Chinese help, which will mean China extending its chain of bases down to the Cape.
Don’t know if that means Africa wins again or not… or how long the winning might take in the face of Chinese strategic interests.
Whether it would be less bad to be under Chinese control or the ANC’s I have no idea.
China’s had it pretty cheap in the third world so far- bribe the right leaders, and get cheap access to minerals, ect.
But, they tend to really suck at “winning hearts and minds” of the people. They tend to be hated in those places.
If they go the armed colonization route, then they will have utterly and totally screwed their own nation. That means troops, money, more troops, more money, international condemnation, more troops and money, and down the rabbit hole.
In the end, Africa will win.
Which will neatly fix their oversupply of military age males. It’s the traditional solution. And they don’t actually give a crap about international condemnation.
The thing is, Africa is a terrible place to fight a war in. So, China would have to go the total war route. Total wars are dangerous to the nations involved- just ask Tsar Nicky, Kaiser Willy, or the other leaders of empires that disappeared in 1918.
Fight a total war long enough, and your people get sick and tired of all the sacrifice and starvation- and the military likewise gets sick and tired of their butts being the ones shot at. A small part of the reason the Soviet Union fell was the meat grinder of Afghanistan.
And while they may not give a crap about international condemnation, they do care about losing markets around the world. One fun thing about being an international pariah is everyone gets to seize your overseas stuff- and declare any debts they owe you null and void.
All of that is true. Gordon Chang (some of whose predictions about China haven’t been that great)and Arthur Waldron were talking about the PLA and a recent Party leadership meeting which seemed to feature the question of “can we really tell the PLA what to do these days?” Waldron mentioned the Mings, who had five separate armies so that they could play them off against each other. The PLA, now over two million strong (and which recently had PR videos featuring a soldier declaiming: “Peace behind me! War in front of me!”) has assiduously cultivated a unified command.
The implication seemed to be that Party leaders might see an overseas adventure as a safety valve for themselves.
“…overseas adventure as a safety valve for themselves” tends to be a recipe for the eventual downfall of a government.
Taking back your historic claim is popular; losing your sons over in some godforsaken foreign hellhole isn’t. Especially if you are losing, if it goes on too long, or if your people don’t have any say in your government.
“Zimbabwe South” is a best-case scenario.
Most likely it will be “Zimbabwe Worst”.
…on the (correct) assumption that in Africa, no matter what you think the “worst case” scenario can be, it’s but a step downwards in the spiral.
Sadly I think Zimbabwe South is correct only it is going to be a far larger degree of self inflicted destruction than little Rhodesia ever was. SA has a larger population base and once they begin to starve a la Venezuela, all tribal frictions are going to explode only this time there won’t be any whiteys around to stabilize things as was done in prior centuries.
I think the USA and other anglosphere nations should offer refugee status and encourage in migration for those with expertise in farming other technical fields. Pulling up roots to depart your nation is very hard and many won’t be able to recover value of their property. Have observed what happened with Rhodesia/Zimbabwe with Mugabe. Worked with several Rhodesians who moved to USA at the time of the upheaval.
Darn! Somewhere I have a copy of an essay that the right to privately own property is a very important feature of civilisation.
Ergo, the new SA government is not civilised.
As for the Red Chinese, remember the concept of the “Yellow Peril”? Asian hordes sweeping southwards and colonising other States.
Begorrah, it is sad to see all the work done by the previous generations turn to dust and rust, but with feckless spineless brainless gutless white politicians at the UN, at the European Parliament, and in your Democratic Party, what can we do?
Where is Maggie Thatcher when you need her?
Seems to me that China, overcrowded with ~1.2 billion people, wouldn’t mind some lebensraum. Going north or west gets them in doo-doo with nuclear Russia or nuclear Pakistan and India. That should make fertile, mineral rich sub-Saharan Africa look very good, and I suspect they’d have no qualms about genocide when convenient; i.e., after they are firmly established. Who’s going to stop them once the place goes altogether primitive tribal and chaotic?
Plus China is on the tail end of that one child policy + female infanticide + sex selective abortion surplus in men still of military age.
Just read China guy Michael Pillsbury’s “The Hundred Year Marathon”. Scary book. China is playing off of a 5000 year old playbook. Long game that already goes back to Nixon. You will be stunned by numerous secret deals EVERY US administration has cut with the Chinese to our detriment. Pillsbury was key player thru out. Finally defectors woke him up to the Chinese plan. Well worth the read if you are prepared to see our possible demise.
You got to remember that China is an economic powerhouse in the same way the late 70’s Soviets and late 80’s Japan Inc. were economic powerhouses. The place is just a few years away from economic collapse, and for much the same reasons.
It’s more likely we’ll see a replay of Warring States instead of African colonialism and genocide within the next decade.
And, inevitably:
https://www.gunpowdermagazine.com/south-africa-calls-for-300-000-gun-owners-to-turn-over-their-weapons/
So much easier to confiscate the land when no one can shoot back.