Category: Lies and Untruths

Flawed Methodology

Lies and Untruths, Numbers & Statistics, Seen On Campus

Some lofty survey has ranked the top universities in the world, so go ahead and look at it — if you think that universities per se  are worth more than a minute of your time.

However, before you do that, know that “sustainability” was one of the measures applied.

Wot dat?  you ask.

Sustainability is measured in two ways: the commitment of the institution to “the climate crisis” and how its research aligns with the climate goals of the United Nations.

Those of you who think that this should be a negative factor in the ranking methodology, raise your hands.

Yeah, that’s me in Row JJ Seat 24.

Checking The Numbers

Lies and Untruths

Over at TCW, Norman Fenton applies serious statistics (as opposed to lies and / or wishful thinking) to the mainstream media’s latest take on the murder rates of White South African farmers.  (For the record, the Guttersnipe Media is claiming that the murder rate of the above group isn’t that different from South Africa’s already-appalling murder rate.)  His final take?

Probability true murder rate of Whites is higher than Blacks: 99.99999997%
Probability true murder rate of Whites at least 2 times higher than Blacks: 99.98%
Probability true murder rate of Whites at least 3 times higher than Blacks: 96.95%

So, over the entire period [2017-2022] it is essentially certain (99.98% probability) that the true murder rate of Whites is at least twice that of Black and highly likely (96.95% probability) to be at least three times as high.

In other words:  State-tolerated or -approved mass murder.

And people still ask me why I left South Africa?  I left because I foresaw precisely this situation.  My only mistake was that I thought this would start to happen much sooner than it actually has.

Piling On

Journalist Scum, Lies and Untruths, Two-Minute Hate

There are many times when I wonder (as do many of you) why I bother with the Daily Mail, which is a truly horrible publication.  (It’s difficult to call it a “newspaper” because so much of it is utter rubbish.)

However, I can deal with “rubbish”.  It’s when they publish outright misleading falsehoods that I get upset.  Here’s an example:

Never mind “correlation” not being related to “causation”;  the difference between “causation” and “coincidence” is even greater.

As we read this silly article, only in paragraph eleventy-hundred do we come across this embarrassing factoid:

Progressive Furniture, a division of Sauder Woodworking based in Claremont, North Carolina, announced its plans to close down and fire all 30 of its employees by the end of the year. 

The firm grew to be the seventh largest furniture manufacturing company in the world – and was a much-loved brand, selling high-quality traditional and modern homeware at Walmart, Target and Home Depot. 

Uhhhh Lauder may be large — and it is — but its tiny 30-employee subsidiary?  Much less so.  But it gets worse.  You see:

Although it is an American company, its main supplier was based in Rosarito, Mexico. That manufacturer, Baja Wood, was responsible for more than 60 percent of Progressive’s inventory.

So Progressive is really just an assembly- and shipping operation?  (That would account for its tiny workforce.)  But what about this Baja Wood?  In fact…

…the Mexican supplier’s internal dilemmas resulted in [Progressive’s] demise.  Problems began back in January, when about 60 of Baja Wood’s 320 employees rallied in front of the factory in protest of reduced hours.  Government labor investigators were called upon to evaluate the situation and production halted.  However, once the investigation was closed, Baja Wood never reopened. 

So that’s why Progressive failed:  its major supplier went tits-up.

Trump’s tariffs, despite the screaming headline, had sweet fuck-all to do with it.

In future I think I’ll just stick with the Mail’s T&A content.

Caveat lector.

Sick Of The Exaggeration

Lies and Untruths, Numbers & Statistics

From Stephen Green (and a veritable host of others):

“The Democrats have a destructive addiction to the 20% side of a whole host of 80/20 issues.”

I can’t remember who first uttered the “80/20 issues” trope, but I’ll bet it was a Democrat like James Carville or Bill Maher.

With all things, scale matters.

Are you telling me that 20% of voters — that’s one in every five voters — supports:

  • men competing in women’s sports
  • gender-reversal surgery on minor children without parental notification (let alone consent)
  • not expelling criminal illegal aliens
  • not ending the flood of illegal immigrants who draw money from public health- and education services, at the expense of U.S. citizens
  • deficit spending and a ballooning national debt
  • a voting system that enables voter fraud and crooked elections (in guess who’s favor)
  • Hamas-sponsored riots and
  • anti-Semitic attacks on Jews in college campuses
  • eco-terrorism and obstructive demonstrations
  • violent demonstrations against public officials (e.g. Supreme Court justices) who dare to oppose their agenda
  • waste, abuse and outright fraud in the federal government budget
  • sending foreign aid money — by the billion — to sponsor overt anti-American activities abroad
  • siphoning “foreign aid” money — by the tens of millions — to line the pockets of executives running Washington D.C. non-profit organizations
  • a military weakened by woke DEI policies and regulations
  • a foreign policy that supports enemies of the U.S. (e.g. Iran) rather than chastises them
  • over-regulation of industry which chokes off economic progress
  • schools which have failed our children, and the government department that is responsible for that failure
  • a mandate that all cars sold in the U.S. be EVs, by 2030 — i.e. five years’ time — with no supporting infrastructure to sustain them
  • [insert your favorite issues here]

Seriously?  One in every five voters supports all the above?

Let me tell you right now:  it’s not 20%, but more like 5%.  In other words, the Democrats are supporting splinter issues that may find favor with only five in every hundred U.S. citizens — and even 5% may be too high.

So let’s quit this exaggeration of their support, please.  Most of their positions are deeply unpopular with almost all voters, and an “80/20” apportionment gives a misleading impression.  Numbers matter, so let’s start using the more-correct one.

Speaking of numbers, here’s a recent poll highlight:

When asked in an open-ended question to name the Democratic leader they feel “best reflects the core values” of the party, “10% of Democratic-aligned adults name New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 9% former vice president Kamala Harris, 8% Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and 6% House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Another 4% each name former president Barack Obama and Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, with Schumer joining a handful of others at 2%.”

When AOC is your standard-bearer (and the rest are equally dire)…

Weather Vain

Lies and Untruths, Science!, Trumpism

Here’s a consequence of being entrusted to collect critical data, then using that data to peddle a false narrative:

The US government’s weather agency has been dismantled by the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) after it was accused of peddling “misinformation”.

Hundreds of weather forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were fired last week as part of Donald Trump’s plans to slash the federal workforce.

In total, at least 800 civil servants are thought to have lost their jobs, including meteorologists, radar specialists and crews of hurricane hunters, who fly aircraft into storms to help forecasters, according to CBS.

Of course, out come the apocalyptic doomsayers:

The job cuts have triggered protests at the agency’s headquarters in Maryland, with some scientists and lawmakers warning that removing staff involved in predicting natural disasters will “endanger American lives going forward”.

No, they won’t — at least, no more than they ever did before.  There are several other avenues of getting such warnings — from private enterprise — and not from some Gummint malignancy.

But here’s the critical part, from someone who’s been doing the hard work of tracking this nonsense for a decade and a half:

Prof Roger Pielke, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on the politicization of science, said that the agency is “reaping the whirlwind” for “cutting corners on science”.

“By not upholding the highest standards of scientific integrity, we’ve opened the door to politicians meddling,” he said.

According to experts, studies and former NOAA officials, the chart proves little about the effects of climate change, and instead shows that disasters are becoming more expensive because Americans choose to build in hazard-prone areas.

“The problem is you can’t use economic data to say anything about climate change,” said Prof Pielke.

Quite right.  Collecting data to forewarn of disaster, then using that data incorrectly and unethically to further a boutique (and flawed) worldview — that would be Global Warming Climate Cooling Change©, of course — deserves censure of the second-highest order.  (“First-order” censure would be imprisonment and so on.)

So of course this little clique of taxpayer-funded climate alarmists deserves to be shut up and disbanded.

MOAR DOGE like this, please.

Unbelievable

Anti-Gun Nannies, Lies and Untruths

Not that we should believe anything that Josh Sugarman’s Violence Policy Center ever says, but even for them, this is egregiously terrible:

“More Than 2,500 Non-Self Defense Deaths Involving Concealed Carry Killers Since 2007, Latest Violence Policy Center Research Shows”

Yeah, except that the data shows no such thing — unless you lie, twist and conceal data which negates your premise, that us.

When you discount all of the categories that don’t match VPC’s horrid headline—suicide, murder/suicide victim, cases still pending, accidents and cases still under investigation—the final total is 625 over a 17-year period. Do the math, and it equals 36 a year, equal to about two holiday weekends in Chicago.  (Of course, this assumes that VPC’s figures are even close to being correct.)

And they pretty much aren’t.  Considering that only a (shamefully) small percentage of gun owners carry concealed, I wouldn’t even believe that annual number of three dozen.

The only problem with bullshit like this — Sugarman would call it a feature, not a bug — is that the numbers will be uncritically used by The Usual Hoplophobic Suspects — media, Congress, etc. — to bolster their demands that All Guns Should Be Confiscated, Right Now.

Uh huh.  Dream on, assholes.