When POTUS Trump announced high tariffs on Chinese goods, the Commies came back with retaliatory tariffs and all the New Economists (fresh from their discussions on vaccines) announced that oh noes we’re going to suffer because rare earth minerals etc.
Um, maybe not (some excerpts):
China Just ‘Folded’ in the Trade War
Beijing has ordered its airlines not to take delivery of Boeing aircraft, and the plane maker has now flown back, from China to the U.S., three 737 Max aircraft that were about to be delivered. Due to the long order backlogs at both Boeing and Airbus, this punishment imposes, as a practical matter, almost no cost on Boeing. Yet if Trump were to order Boeing not to deliver parts or provide services to Chinese airlines, China would soon have to ground a large number of its airliners.
However:
Companies in sectors including aviation and industrial chemicals said that some of their products had already been granted a reprieve, while local media reported that some semiconductors had been spared tariffs.
And the U.S. has the advantage because:
Unfortunately for Xi, he must make concessions. His economy is far smaller than America’s, and he is the one running large trade surpluses — China’s merchandise surplus last year against the U.S. was $295.4 billion, up 5.8% over 2023.
Worse, China’s economy is probably contracting, something evident from price indicators. The country is in a deflationary spiral: In March, the Consumer Price Index was down for the second-straight month and the Producer Price Index was down for the 30th consecutive month.
Meanwhile, China is in the middle of a slow-moving debt crisis, and Xi, having rejected consumption as the fundamental basis of the Chinese economy, must as a result export more to rescue the increasingly grim situation at home.
Trump has the right of it: the U.S. is the big dog in international trade, and all the cheap shit that China exports to the U.S. pales into insignificance compared to the vital stuff we export to them — aircraft parts, technology and chemicals which they can’t reproduce by stealing the technology or reverse engineering, because their manufacturing equipment and systems are incapable of doing so.
I don’t comment on the tariff thing much because a) the topic of macro-economics is, to put it mildly, not my strong suit and b) I suspect that Trump’s whole tariff initiative is part of a long game which I can’t figure out at the moment.
Especially when I read stuff like this:
President Donald Trump said Sunday that his tariff policy will substantially reduce, even completely eliminate, income taxes for some American workers.
Trump’s gang is full of big brains and even more experience, and given the 4D strategies constantly being used by the Trump Administration across so many spheres — economics, politics and even social — I’m left wondering whether the tariff thing should not be studied as a stand-alone initiative but as just part of a greater whole.